Abstract
Geological resources play a crucial role in every-day life. The subsurface provides multiple services and a variety of activities takes place at varying depths. In Flanders, the Campine Basin is used for the seasonal storage of natural gas and this basin is currently also the sole target resource for direct use of geothermal energy production in Flanders. At more shallow depths, groundwater is being extracted and used for the production of drinking water, in the agricultural sector or in other industries.
Because the number of geological formations suited for these activities is limited and because the subsurface is a complex and interlinked system, competition between subsurface uses is already taking place and is likely to increase. Subsurface activities do not operate in isolation. Past activities (like mining) have left imprints that dictate current subsurface utilizations and present subsurface activities will leave imprints that will dictate the options for future subsurface utilization. Also, different subsurface activities are operating simultaneously, like the seasonal gas storage facility in Loenhout and the geothermal energy extraction at the site of Johnson & Johnson in Beerse. At the current knowledge level, the consequences of the large spatial and temporal impact of interacting subsurface activities may result in unanticipated and irreversible environmental and economic consequences, impacting the livelihood of current and future generations.
The general research objective is to develop a dynamic and interdisciplinary method to assess the hydrogeological, environmental and economic impacts of different subsurface development options through time, taking into account interaction effects between subsurface activities, different sources of uncertainty and flexibility options. Hydrogeological models that assess interference effects between subsurface activities will be integrated with environmental economics models. The economic modelling approach combines principles of the real options theory and game theory to simulate and assess strategic decision-making processes under multiple sources of uncertainty. Environmental impacts are calculated based on a novel territorial life cycle assessment to account for spatial variability and to create knowledge about the geological parameters that contribute the most to overall local and regional environmental impacts of subsurface activities.
Based on the results we will get insights about (i) the geological and economic boundary conditions that determine the selection of a specific pathway, (2) the environmental economic costs and benefits associated with interfering subsurface activities, (iii) the options that can be considered as most valuable to manage the risk of negatively interfering subsurface activities, and (iv) about how to plan simultaneously or consecutively operating subsurface activities such that the subsurface can be developed at the highest expected reward and the lowest expected economic and environmental risks.
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