Gerlinde Verbist guest professor - associate professor - senior research manager

Research Gerlinde Verbist

Research team

Expertise

Tax-benefit microsimulatiemodelling

Sustainable Wellbeing through Investment in Social Services (SWINS). 01/02/2025 - 31/01/2028

Abstract

SWINS will develop and test a policy-oriented toolbox for the ex-ante assessment of the economic and social returns of investments in social services over the life course. Focusing on the complementarity of services aimed at developing human capabilities throughout the lifespan, it will explore the impacts of alternative social policy scenarios entailing different social services configurations (from maternal care and ECEC, to education and ALMP, up to long-term care). SWINS will conceptualize the returns to social services in terms of income, employment, and growth, as well as bridge knowledge gaps about how these investments influence macroeconomic stability and foster the EU sustainability transition performances. By implementing a right-based social investment approach, SWINS aims to support the rethinking of social services as drivers of the EU's shift towards sustainable wellbeing, going beyond their role as mere safeguards against the transition's side effects. SWINS methodology will be based on three main steps: 1) the identification of macro-regularities, that is the relation between investment in social services and aggregate social-economic performances, 2) analysis of the micro-foundations, that is the analysis of the micro-level mechanisms that explains the macro-regularities, 3) macro and long term projection of the results. SWINS will rely on a variety of methodologies, i.e. microsimulation analysis using the EUROMOD platform and its expansions, synthetic panels, causal analysis of comparative microdata, machine learning techniques and macroeconomic agentbased models. Leveraging the expertise of a multi-disciplinary (law, economics, sociology, political science) consortium, SWINS will explicitly pursue impact by proposing concrete strategies to integrate research findings and tools into the institutional, legal and policy frameworks.

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  • Research Project

BelHisFirm: long-term firm-level data for the social sciences. 01/05/2024 - 30/04/2028

Abstract

Long-term digital economic data are mainly available at the macro level for Flanders and Belgium. However, new research questions require microdata that are only available in printed form. To make microdata on firms available in computer-readable form, research groups from the universities of Antwerp and Ghent are joining forces. Belgium has a long tradition of publishing essential data on companies in the Appendices to the Belgian Official Gazette since 1873. In addition, excellent reference works were compiled at the time for the benefit of investors. These sources contain a wealth of information on companies: date of incorporation, (successive) company names, addresses, names (and addresses) of directors and shareholders, balance sheets and profit and loss accounts, securities portfolios, information on capital increases, dividend and interest payments, relations between companies (participation in cartels, (de)mergers, spin-offs, ...). The research infrastructure "BelHisFirm: long-term business data for the social sciences" will bring all these microdata together in a database and make tools for the visualisation and analysis of the data available to researchers. BelHisFirm will thus enable, among other things, pioneering research on long-term trends in corporate finance, wealth inequality and the economic and financial impact of (de)colonisation.

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  • Research Project

Technical support for the development and update of EUROMOD - Lot 1: Support to EUROMOD for Belgium. 07/02/2024 - 06/02/2027

Abstract

This project concerns the updating of the Belgian country component for EUROMOD. It involves the following tasks: 1) Updating the input database based on the EU-SILC and HBS; 2) Documenting and building policy systems into EUROMOD; 3) Documenting, testing and validating the model; 4) Country report.

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  • Research Project

Developing a nowcasting method for DG Analysis and Monitoring of FPS Social Security 01/01/2024 - 30/06/2025

Abstract

The aim of the present study 'Nowcasting BELMOD' is to work out a nowcasting method for the BELMOD dataset. To deal with the problem of missing recent data, nowcasting methods are increasingly being used to analyse the recent past, present or near future. We will use a parametric method. In addition we will work out and test a nowcasting approach for calculating an up-to-date poverty line.

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  • Research Project

At the crossroads of social inequality and transition policies. An empirical exploration of the poverty and inequality impact of climate policies in Belgium. 01/12/2022 - 30/11/2024

Abstract

In this research project we analyse the impact on inequality and poverty of tax-benefit policies aimed at making our society carbon neutral (further referred to as 'carbon-neutral policies'). How can these policies be designed in such a way that the poor are at least not made worse off, and/or even can improve their living standards? The project will focus on Belgium as an exploratory case and on a selection of policies. This means that for Belgium we will develop an environmentally extended version of the microsimulation model Euromod to examine distributional impacts of policy mixes in the domain of just transition. We select for this project to empirically analyse policies that focus on housing energy and that aim for a rapid transition to renewable energy sources. Housing energy is a major source of emissions, especially for poor households. As is illustrated currently by the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine, these households are especially vulnerable for sudden hikes in energy prices if no policy action is taken and they may not have the means to invest in carbon-neutral technologies; this risks getting poor households trapped in the longer term in high carbon and expensive energy sources. Policies that combine social and ecological goals may create a double dividend, and this project aims to make clear how this can be done.

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  • Research Project

Towards a cultural sociology of sustainable citizenship: Understanding different ways of crafting sustainable citizenship through cultural repertoires. 01/11/2022 - 31/10/2026

Abstract

Current environmental problems force us to rethink notions of citizenship and specifically the role of citizens in addressing these issues. While scholarly debate often attempts to conceptualize sustainable citizenship (SC), there is less literature which examines empirically how social groups envision their role in addressing environmental issues. I aim to study sustainable citizenship from a bottom-up perspective by placing the social actor at the center of the analysis. A mixed methods research design will be used to examine how different social groups actively construct (or craft) sustainable citizenship. In contrast to most studies, I will apply a cultural lens to examine the cultural repertoires people employ to deal with environmental issues. By defining cultural repertoires both as cognitive frames and action scripts, this concepts provides an excellent framework to examine the multiple, inconsistent patterns that are part of crafting sustainable citizenship. This project uses a mixed-method research design to answer the research question: 'How do various social groups craft sustainable citizenship through the use of cultural repertoires?' Quantitative methods will examine and compare how different social groups relate to SC based on data of the Eurobarometer 95.1 (2021). Qualitative methods, based on reflexive diaries and semi-structured interviews, search for nuanced explanations of the quantitative findings.

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  • Research Project

Money isn't all that matters in life: towards the use of multidimensional wellbeing measures in the ex-ante evaluation of social policy. 01/11/2022 - 31/10/2026

Abstract

The use of an innovative type of social assistance, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, has spread across Latin America and the rest of the world. Yet, there is still debate as to whether they are effective in reaching their goal of reducing current and future poverty. Moreover, despite the multidimensional view on wellbeing reflected in the programs, both evaluation and targeting of beneficiaries is generally based on unidimensional measures of wellbeing. In addition, whether alternative designs of CCT programs could achieve improved outcomes has received relatively limited attention. Against this background, I will investigate the possibilities and implications of using a multidimensional framework to target and evaluate CCT programs. I will enrich the possibilities of ex-ante microsimulation analyses, by a) building on the information that ex-post impact evaluations provide on the effects of CCT programs and b) coupling multidimensional measures of wellbeing to microsimulation models.

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  • Research Project

A job offer you shouldn't refuse: towards a better understanding of financial work incentives and welfare-to-work transitions. 01/11/2021 - 31/10/2025

Abstract

Modern welfare states face a remarkable conundrum: despite the efforts aimed at activating the unemployed and making work pay, vacancies remain difficult to fill and joblessness perseveres. Even people facing strong financial incentives to work appear not to act upon them. The link between financial incentives and entry into work is clearly less strong than is assumed. Against this background, the fundamental question remains how accurate and valid these models are since they are still rooted in the traditional economist's notion that 'work must pay'. It may well be the case that the current financial incentives modelling is flawed and does not represent the reality of all benefit recipients. Concretely, this project will investigate welfare-to-work transitions with particular attention to low work intensity households at the fringes of the labour market. The main objective is 1) to expose the interactions between employment pathways, individual characteristics, family context, work history and the tax-benefit system; 2) to innovate the modelling of financial work incentives by introducing novel factors; and 3) to examine to what extent the (re-)modelled incentives are actually associated with transitions into work and out of poverty. This way, the research plan will allow us to 1) address important shortcomings in prior research, which is critical for enhancing our understanding of the mechanisms underlying disappointing labour market outcomes; and 2) optimise social policy.

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  • Research Project

Contextualizing the green gap: Public concerns, energy preferences, and energy consumption in Europe. 01/10/2021 - 30/09/2025

Abstract

This project is focusing on two themes: (i) the interrelated problems of climate change and energy security, and (ii) the complex relationships between environmental attitudes and environmentally friendly behavior. The first theme relates to the question of how European citizens perceive the problems of climate change and energy security. The second theme relates to the question if and how concerns about climate change and energy security translate into more sustainable energy preferences and a more sustainable usage of energy. To address these questions, the project uses a novel combination of data based on the module 'Public Attitudes to Climate Change' of the eighth wave of the European Social Survey as well as the national Household Budget Surveys. By doing so this interdisciplinary project offers a much needed social-scientific perspective on the relationships between energy security and climate change, thereby combining (a) a sociological and a socio-economic perspective and (b) integrating micro and macro approaches when looking for synergies and trade-offs between energy security and climate change policies in different countries across Europe.

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  • Research Project

The paradox of Belgian Inequality studies: Belgium less unequal than others (BE-PARADIS). 15/12/2019 - 31/12/2024

Abstract

Inequality and poverty are high on the agenda of researchers, politicians, and international institutions, and fuel the public discussion at large. The IMF has labelled inequality as the 'defining challenge' of our time because it signals a lack of income mobility and opportunity, and because it has important consequences for growth and macroeconomic stability, and carries a risk of concentrating decision making in the hands of a few. In the last fifteen years also the OECD has gathered 'a significant body of evidence on the increased inequalities of income and opportunities in many countries', and concludes that inequality is 'bad and getting worse' (OECD 2018). In this proposal we start from two observations. First, and curiously enough, most existing statistics for Belgium tell a different story. Based on survey data, Horemans et al. (2011) and Van Rie and Marx (2014) conclude that the Belgian income inequality remained fairly stable between 1985 and the late 2000s. Also the OECD‐report cited above, reports a minor change in the Gini from 0.257 in 1983 to 0.264 in 2011, and even a slight decline since 2004. Similarly, Decoster et al. (2017) could not find evidence that the top incomes in Belgium have benefitted disproportionally from the economic growth since the nineties. Furthermore, the Belgian at‐risk‐of‐poverty rate has remained stable during the last decades. These findings not only stand in sharp contrast with the conclusions for many other countries; they also seem to contradict the widespread perception that inequality, poverty, material deprivation, and insecurity are on the rise. Understanding this 'paradox' is one of the central objectives of our project (and explains the project acronym). Second, Belgium remains notoriously absent from a rapidly expanding track in empirical research, which describes and analyses distributional information in a standard which emulates the framework of national accounts. This new standard is known as DIstributional National Accounts (DINA), and is essentially an extension of the methods proposed by Kuznets, who combined, in a pioneering effort, national income series (macro‐data) with income tax data (micro‐data). Recently, the upgrade of national accounts to incorporate distributional information has been initiated by the late Tony Before completing, please read carefully the instructions in the information file Call 2019 BRAIN‐be 2.0 Call 2019 'National thematic Project': BE‐PARADIS 2 Atkinson, and further developed by a scholars such as Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez. In early 2018, their team at the Paris School of Economics launched the World Wealth and Income Database, which gives access to data about inequality and other macroeconomic indicators for many countries. Unfortunately, Belgium is missing from this dataset. In this project we will investigate the paradox and bring Belgium to the frontier of international research on inequality by renewed, profound, and critical inquiry of existing and fresh data, concepts, and methods..

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  • Research Project

Basic Income in Belgium: stress-testing basic income in the digital era (BABEL). 15/12/2019 - 31/12/2024

Abstract

The BABEL project aims to narrow the gap between claim and reality with regard to BI outcomes. The project has several objectives. First, it aims to investigate the actual labour supply effects of BI. To this end, a quasi-experimental approach is applied in which we use administrative records to estimate the labour supply effects of BI based on what gets closest to a real world basic income situation: the Belgian Win-for-Life lottery. Second, to gauge the potential outcomes of BI and its different policy versions a comprehensive microsimulation exercise is conducted to estimate the first-order income distributive and budgetary effects of a set of BI proposals and their effect on work incentives in Belgium. Third, by carrying out factorial vignette experiments, the project aims to gain deeper insight into public support for the implementation of a variety of basic income schemes in Belgium, and whether and to what extent public support of basic income schemes depends on the outcomes, financing and implementation details. Fourth, BABEL will pay due attention to the on-the-ground implementation and the technical and administrative feasibility of a selection of basic income policy proposals, and it will gauge to what extent political parties and social partners as gatekeepers in the Belgian welfare state are willing to support the implementation of these schemes. Finally, the project will present a blueprint of pathways for basic income policy proposals that (1) are likely to garner sufficient support by the general public and by social partners; (2) lead to better outcomes in terms of social protection and work incentives; and (3) can inspire feasible welfare reform in Belgium.

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  • Research Project

Target group analysis income selectivity 01/03/2023 - 31/12/2023

Abstract

The coalition agreement of the Flemish government 2019-2024 states the ambition to move away from categorical selectivity based on social statuses when allocating social measures and switch to allocation based on income selectivity. This also relates to policy measures within the energy domain. Renovation premiums and grid operator premiums for energy investments already use income categories. For measures within the social energy policy, categorical selection criteria still apply at present. In preparation for the switch to income selectivity for these measures, it is important to have insight into what overlap there is between beneficiaries under the current categorical selectivity and beneficiaries under income selectivity. In this research project, we estimate the share of the Flemish population that is caught by the categorical selectivity criteria, both for the total population and for the different income deciles. We examine which share of the population is captured by the income criteria and how large the overlap is between the two criteria.

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  • Research Project

Family Taxation and Family Benefits 01/02/2023 - 15/07/2024

Abstract

The government provides various measures to financially support families with children. Such measures for families in Flanders are spread across different policy areas and across different policy levels. The most important measures can be found, on the one hand, in personal income tax in the form of tax breaks and, on the other, in social benefits in the form of family benefits. In the (federal) personal income tax (finance domain), the most important measures are the increase in the tax free allowance for dependent children, the additional increase in the tax free allowance for single persons with one or more dependent children and the refundable tax credit for dependent children. At the Flemish level, there is the Growth Package, which falls under the policy area of welfare, public health and family. With a view to possible future divisions of competence, this project will examine what optimisation is possible between the two forms of support.

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  • Research Project

Progressive employment in other benefit systems? Exploratory research into opportunities and pitfalls. 22/12/2022 - 31/12/2023

Abstract

Through progressive employment, it has been made attractive for incapacitated workers to return to work during or after a period of illness or absence. Indeed, such employment makes it possible that, if the work has to be adapted, or if the work can only be partially resumed, the health insurance fund benefit can be (partially) combined with a wage for the work performed. For other benefit recipients and inactives, there may also be thresholds that prevent them from participating in the labour market. In this research project, we examine which unemployment and inactivity traps exist for benefit recipients and inactives in Flanders. We examine what the financial impact would be of a system of progressive work resumption for long-term unemployed and inactive people and how the existing system can be improved.

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  • Research Project

Update of the EUROMOD/HFCS input dataset/systems. 04/08/2022 - 30/11/2022

Abstract

The Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) data can be used as an input data set for the European microsimulation model EUROMOD. In this project we update the HFCS data of Luxembourg as input data set for EUROMOD. Also relevant policy systems will be updated and developed.

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  • Research Project

COVIVAT - study into the impact of COVID 19 lockdown and social policy measures on the household income distribution 01/09/2021 - 30/09/2022

Abstract

COVIVAT assesses the consequences of the COVID-19 social distancing measures on the incomes of Belgian individuals and households. The aim is to generate insights that can support policy makers in limiting the social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, and that may feed into post-Corona social policy.

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  • Research Project

Analysis of the (evolution of the) social situation with regard to the social targets and priorities of the national reform programme and the national social report 01/02/2021 - 31/01/2022

Abstract

This project will add to the annual reports on the evolution of the social situation and social protection in Belgium, by extending the instruments used, using policy indicators for a more timely assessment, also with regard to the COVID crisis, placing the reports and their findings in the broader literature, and listing key challenges.

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  • Research Project

Study COVIVAT. 01/09/2020 - 31/08/2021

Abstract

The COVIVAT consortium is a collaboration between three research groups of the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven and the Universiteit Antwerpen. The consortium aims to map the social consequences of the spread of the coronavirus on the incomes of Belgian families, and to generate scientific insights that can support the socio-economic policy to limit the social consequences of the corona crisis and help shape the post-corona policy.

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  • Research Project

Minimizing the social impact of a COVID-19 exit strategy: short-term and medium-term estimations and scenario's. 01/06/2020 - 31/05/2021

Abstract

In this project we generate immediate data to monitor the impact of different exit strategies on incomes and poverty. Although the macroeconomic impact of the lockdown measures on the Belgian economy is unprecedented, there is currently no data available to assess the social consequences of the lockdown or to estimate the impact of COVID-19 policies on incomes and poverty. This severely affects legislators' capacity to put effective measures in place. We use advanced microsimulation modelling and forecasting techniques, in the short-term, (1) to document the impact of the COVID-19 economic shock on incomes and poverty; (2) to assess the effectiveness of policies implemented to reduce the loss of incomes during the initial spread of infections; and (3) to support an evidence-based COVID-19 exit strategy by estimating the poverty impact of various scenarios. Our forecasts will support legislators in designing social and economic support measures that adequately target the most vulnerable individuals and households. In the medium-term, we (1) integrate macro-economic scenario's on economic recovery and sectoral unemployment to produce long-term forecasts of the consequences on household incomes and poverty under a variety of growth and employment scenarios; and (2) we calibrate our models with administrative data sources so that future policy responses to expected rebounds in the number of infections in the months and years to come can be monitored using timely data.

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  • Research Project

Technical support for the development and update of EUROMOD Belgium - Year 2020. 01/01/2020 - 31/12/2020

Abstract

This project concerns the updating of the Belgian country component for EUROMOD. It involves the following tasks: 1) Updating the input database based on the EU-SILC; 2) Building policy systems into EUROMOD; 3) Validation and incorporation into EUROMOD; 4) Country report.

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  • Research Project

A set of indicators to measure contextual factors and policy impact with regard to poverty in Flanders (Flemish indicator set poverty) 15/09/2019 - 14/03/2021

Abstract

VISA aims to develop a set of valid and robust policy input and outcome indicators to measure the impact of policy on poverty and social exclusion in Flanders. We will make recommendations regarding the data and policy models needed to further maintain and develop the VISA indicators in the future.

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  • Research Project

Research into harmonized income and household concepts in Flanders. 15/06/2019 - 14/05/2020

Abstract

Flanders has a variety of social measures aimed at strengthening the income situation of socially vulnerable groups. These measures are, however, scattered over different policy areas and administrations, However, in order to enhance take-up and to make progress in the fight against poverty, there is a need for (1) clear definitions of the different income and family concepts applied within social policy measures, and (2) scientifically based proposals to harmonize these income and family concepts wherever possible and desirable in order to allow for more integrated policy. With this research proposal we aim to meet these needs.

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  • Research Project

Regular maintenance of the EUROMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model and preparation of its transfer tot the European Commission. 01/02/2019 - 31/12/2019

Abstract

This project concerns the updating of the Belgian country component for EUROMOD. It involves the following tasks: 1) Updating the input database based on the EU-SILC; 2) Building policy systems into EUROMOD; 3) Validation and incorporation into EUROMOD; 4) Country report.

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  • Research Project

Analysing investment tax expenditures. 30/01/2019 - 15/03/2019

Abstract

The aim of this project is to further broaden the policy scope of EUROMOD in order to allow for the analysis of investment-related tax expenditures for 11 European countries. The OECD (2010) defines tax expenditures as provisions in t he tax system that reduce tax liabilities for specific groups of tax payers or specific activities and that reduce government revenue. Tax expenditures can take different farms, e.g. allowances, exemptions, deductions, rate reliefs and credits . These tax expenditures have increased over the past decades and raise concerns in terms of their potential ill effects on budget tax policy (OECD, 2010). Tax expenditures are used for several policy domains; the focus here is on those related to investment activities.

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  • Research Project

BELMOD. 01/01/2019 - 30/06/2022

Abstract

The aim of this project is twofold: 1. To modernize MIMOSIS, i.e. the current microsimulation model of the Belgian social security administration (FPS Social Security), in order to improve the possibilities for cooperation and knowledge exchange between the main actors of static microsimulation within Belgium and Europe by integrating it into EUROMOD. 2. To improve access to social protection in Belgium. The new microsimulation tool (preliminary working title: BELMOD) will be used to design and support evidence-based reforms aimed at furthering the automatization of social rights.

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  • Research Project

Regular maintenance of the EUROMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model and preparation of its transfer to the European Commission. Year 9 01/02/2018 - 31/01/2019

Abstract

This project concerns the update of the Belgian component in EUROMOD. It includes the following tasks: 1) update of the input database based on EU-SILC 2) building policy systems in EUROMOD 3) validation and inclusion in EUROMOD 4) country report.

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  • Research Project

Tax shift within Flemish Housing Taxation. 01/01/2018 - 30/04/2020

Abstract

The sixth state reform has resulted in an additional transfer of competences from parts of the personal income tax system to Flanders, and more specifically with respect to housing taxation. This makes it possible for Flanders to implement a more integrated housing tax policy. For example, a tax shift between the different instruments of housing taxation (registration duties, property tax, dwelling bonus) is possible. The aim of this research is to map both the economic, budgetary and legal aspects of such a Flemish tax shift within the housing tax system. We start from a central scenario, of which several variants will also simulated.

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  • Research Project

Update and Extension of the EUROMOD Wealth Taxation project. 28/07/2017 - 27/07/2018

Abstract

Wealth taxation has been put forward by scholars and policy makers as a way to reduce income inequalities, which have been on the increase over the past decades in many countries. New household surveys such as the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) developed by the European Central Bank Eurosystem represent a milestone in the ongoing process to better measure individual well-being. However, distributional analysis of income and wealth requires information on disposable income and wealth which are not available, as the new Eurosystem data includes only gross income values. Moreover, in order to simulate the effects of wealth taxes and (budget neutral) reforms to the current direct taxes a microsimulation model is needed. In order to allow for cross-country coverage and comparability, a European wide tax-benefit microsimulation model like EUROMOD is most appropriate. EUROMOD is a static model that provides measures of direct taxes, social insurance contributions, cash benefits as well as market incomes in a comparable way across countries. The aim of this project is to build further on the pilot project and update and extended the EUROMOD model with HFCS data. For a selection of EU countries, the relevant policy sheets to simulate wealth taxes on tailored input database will be included. This will allow expanding the policy domains currently covered in EUROMOD with dimensions like wealth taxation, which recently gained much prominence, in academics as well as the public debate.

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  • Research Project

Integrating Research Infrastructure for European expertise on Inclusive Growth from data to policy (InGRID-2). 01/05/2017 - 31/10/2021

Abstract

As part of the InGRID-2 project, the Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy will coordinate Special Interest Group of the EU Reference Budgets Network, organise EUROMOD courses and an Expert Workshop on the cost and accessability of public goods and services. Furthermore, we take part in joint research activities that aim to improve the research infrastructure related to (1) assessing the distributive impact of social and fiscal policies while taking into account assets held by households; (2) measuring the out-of-pocket costs and accessibility of child care and education; (3) studying the coverage and non-take up of out-of-work benefits. In addition, the Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy also takes part in the InGRID-2 programme for hosting academic visitors.

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  • Research Project

EUROMOD year 8 subcontract - Regular maintenance of the EUROMOD taks-benefit microsimulation model and preparation of its transfer to the European Commission. 01/02/2017 - 31/01/2018

Abstract

This project concerns the update of the Belgian component in EUROMOD. It includes the following tasks: 1) update of the input database based on EU-SILC 2) building policy systems in EUROMOD 3) validation and inclusion in EUROMOD 4) country report.

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  • Research Project

Basic Income: Fact and Fiction 01/01/2017 - 30/09/2017

Abstract

This report looks at the scientic evidence regarding the alleged pros and cons of a basic income in the Netherlands. In addition we perform microsimulation analysis the aim of which is to explore the potential first-order effects of three different budget neutral Basic Income schemes on poverty and inequality in the Netherlands. To do so, we build on the work of Browne and Immervoll who have recently performed a similar exercise for four European countries. We use the European tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD in combination with micro-data from EU-SILC to estimate the potential outcomes of our Basic Income reform. Our analysis shows that the number of winners and losers is almost equal in all scenarios. While winners are mainly found among those individuals that have a strong economic position (e.g. students and employed), losers are mostly concentrated among vulnerable groups on the labour market such as the unemployed. Overall poverty and inequality levels would increase because financial resources are redistributed equally among the population, which is mainly beneficial for richer households. As such, it remains doubtful whether a Basic Income is the most efficient way in addressing poverty and inequality.

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  • Research Project

Improving the Labour Market Position of People with a Migration Background in Belgium (IMMIGBEL). 15/12/2016 - 30/06/2022

Abstract

Context Belgium has become an immigrant society. First generation migrants account for more than 15 percent of the Belgian work force and for over 50 percent of labour force growth. However, nowhere in the EU15 is the employment rate gap between migrants and natives as large. First generation migrants' poverty rates are of the worst in the EU15. Even though we know that the employment rate of people with a migration background is lagging, we know less about the causes behind it, a lacuna that IMMILAB aims to fill. Research on the position of people with a migration background in Belgium is based almost exclusively on cross-sectional data. This project aims to use longitudinal data, spanning up to 18 years, to examine the labour market trajectories of immigrants at the individual, household and firm level. Linking rich administrative datasets and surveys, we aim to get a thorough understanding of the complex dynamics of the socioeconomic trajectories of people with a migration background. With sophisticated longitudinal analyses we hope to break new grounds in how migrants fare. We will also pay particular attention to an underexplored subgroup of migrants: posted workers, of which there are many in Belgium. Individual level At the migrant's individual level we aim to enhance our understanding of the employment trajectories of people with a migration background from an individual perspective. The pathways that first generation migrants follow reflect the interplay of opportunities and barriers during their entire period of residence and first generation migrants' own strategic responses. Availing of a linkage of rich administrative datasets and surveys existing in Belgium, we use large scale longitudinal data to map labour market trajectories of people with a migration background. Our contribution lies in the fact that we will analyse, at a considerable level of detail and within a comparatively extended longitudinal scope (consecutive quarters over a 18 year longitudinal time span), the role of determinants such as origin, migration history, gender, age, household characteristics, on the labour market trajectories of people with a migration background. Household level At the household level we study labour force trajectories in relation to family formation with particular attention to the uptake of work-family policies. We use longitudinal microdata from the Belgian National Register and the Crossroads Bank for Social Security to document trajectories of labour force participation and the uptake of work-family policy among migrant and native parents between 2000 and 2014. In addition, we assess to which degree migrant-native differentials can be explained by pre-birth differentials in employment opportunities and income positions. Besides the availability of unique microdata, Belgium provides an interesting case as the country is a forerunner in the development of work-family policies such as formal childcare and subsidized outsourcing of domestic labour, but also exhibits the largest native-migrant differentials in the labour market. Firm level Finally, our project analyses labour market performance through the lens of the Belgian firms in which immigrants find work in this country. The objective of the ULB/MONS work package is to use longitudinal panel data of Belgian firms and their employees to shed light on various aspects related to the presence of immigrants in Belgian firms that have so far not been studied, namely: 1) the role of product market competition for wage discrimination against immigrants; 2) the incidence and determinants of over-education among immigrants; 3) the effects of educational and skills mismatch on the wages for native and immigrant workers; 4) the consequences of over-education in terms of productivity, wages and profits according to the origin of workers; 5) the policy implications of the collected evidence on all of these issues.

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  • Research Project

Care and income redistributive cycles in the lives of Europeans (CIRCLE). 15/12/2016 - 31/10/2021

Abstract

The Great Recession threatens the financial sustainability of the public finances of many European countries and combined with the ongoing demographic changes poses their welfare state under stress, affecting deeply the intergenerational relationships. The aim of this project is to provide new cross-country empirical evidence of the impact of the interaction between the economic and demographic changes and the welfare systems on the distribution of the resources, rights and responsibilities between generations. In many European countries welfare provisions addressed to older people are pay as you go financed and fast population ageing boosts redistribution from the young to the old. However, compensatory mechanisms redistributing resources in the opposite direction, i.e. from the old to the young, are often implemented at intra-household level, mainly through inter-vivos transfers and informal care provisions. The analysis takes both redistributive flows into account and covers a variety of European welfare state models, giving a strong base for generalizing the results and deriving useful policy implications. In particular, the analyses relate to 1) an evaluation of the intergenerational redistribution of resources induced by the major pay as you go financed provisions of the European welfare systems addressed to older people; 2) an investigation of informal intra-household mechanisms of intergenerational insurance of income and care risks in European countries in the last ten years; 3) a study of the perceptions and comprehension that individuals have of the aims of the main welfare provisions and of their implications in term of intergenerational relationships.

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  • Research Project

Finetuning the financial work incentives for the disabled by using model family simulations 01/05/2016 - 31/10/2016

Abstract

This research project aims to evaluate the earnings disregard for beneficiaries of invalidity pensions in Belgium. Methodologically, this research draws on model family simulations and uses the standard simulation model MOTYFF (http://www.flemosi.be/easycms/MOTYFF).

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  • Research Project

EUROMODupdate3Year1 subcontract - Microsimulation tool VS/2015/0291 01/02/2016 - 31/01/2017

Abstract

This project concerns the update of the Belgian component in EUROMOD. It includes the following tasks: 1) update of the input database based on EU-SILC 2) building policy systems in EUROMOD 3) validation and inclusion in EUROMOD 4) country report

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  • Research Project

Reducing poverty by improving the take-up of social benefits by households and companies (TAKE) 15/12/2015 - 15/03/2022

Abstract

The main objective of the TAKE-project is to investigate non-take up (NTU) across Belgian public policy provisions. TAKE aims to make progress on three dimensions: how big is the problem, how can it be explained, and how should policy be (re)designed in order to maximize take-up? In addition, the project aims at examining the consequences of NTU in terms of budgetary impact and equity and at identifying the possible best practices in monitoring NTU by public administrations. For doing so, TAKE will adopt a multi-benefit approach. The focus of attention is on households with low incomes. TAKE will investigate how NTU in a variety of public goods and services affects their living standard, and how NTU can be reduced across public provisions. This project aims to jointly assess a wide variety of public provisions for citizens and companies: cash social assistance (both for the elderly and those at active age), cost compensatory benefits targeted at low income households (e.g. the 'Beneficiary of Increased Reimbursement'(BIR) in health insurance, reduced tariffs for utilities and mobility), social services (e.g. debt counselling, labour market counselling) and employer wage subsidies targeted at the low-skilled. Methodologically, the TAKE project makes use of a range of data sources and innovative research methods. First, we will collect new survey data which allow for a proper investigation into NTU in Belgium. We will carry out a survey, which is expressly tailored to the needs of making an integrated in-depth study of the size, characteristics, causes and consequences of NTU of policy measures targeted at vulnerable groups. A sample will be drawn from administrative data available to the Crossroads Bank on Social Security (CBSS). Second, for identifying NTU, one also needs a model which replicates the eligibility tests on the basis of the variables in the survey. The existing static tax-benefit microsimulation model MEFISTO will be extended and refined for doing so. MEFISTO has been developed in the framework of the IWT-SBO project 'FLEMOSI: a tool for ex ante evaluation of socio-economic policies in Flanders' (2010-2013) (see http://www.flemosi.be/easycms/MEFISTO). Third, TAKE will make use of a field experiment to test the effect of various triggers and encouragements on the uptake of the "Beneficiary of Increased Reimbursement" (BIR) statute within health insurance. Fourth, in order to study the institutional context, we will develop TAKE_ISSOC (working title), i.e. a structured and searchable database which contains the details of eligibility tests of the social benefits covered by the project and how they are implemented in practice. In addition, TAKE_ISSOC will cover measures that public administrations currently take to reduce NTU, and current monitoring practices and their outcomes with regard to NTU. The TAKE project will gather similar information on Sweden and the United Kingdom in order to identify and assess good practices. Fifth, TAKE will exploit existing administrative data collected by public agencies to investigate NTU of employment subsidies targeted at the low-skilled and other vulnerable groups in the period 2004-2013. Longitudinal administrative data from the National Social Security Office (NSSO) and from the National Employment Office (NEO) will be used for doing so. Six, to better understand the reasons for NTU of employment subsidies, the existing survey on administrative charges will be used. This survey measures the costs of administrative charges related to employment legislation incurred by employers in Belgium. TAKE will be able to gather valuable information on non-take up of wage subsidies by adding specific questions to this survey.

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  • Research Project

Matching harmonization and integration of data suitable for the analysis of wealth taxation in the EUROMOD model. 16/07/2015 - 15/07/2016

Abstract

Wealth taxation has been put forward by scholars and policy makers as a way to reduce income inequalities, which have been on the increase over the past decades in many countries. New household surveys such as the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) developed by the European Central Bank Eurosystem represent a milestone in the ongoing process to better measure individual well-being. However, distributional analysis of income and wealth requires information on disposable income and wealth which are not available, as the new Eurosystem data includes only gross income values. Moreover, in order to simulate the effects of wealth taxes and (budget neutral) reforms to the current direct taxes a microsimulation model is needed. In order to allow for cross-country coverage and comparability, a European wide tax-benefit microsimulation model like EUROMOD is most appropriate. EUROMOD is a static model that provides measures of direct taxes, social insurance contributions, cash benefits as well as market incomes in a comparable way across countries. The aim of this project is to build an extended version of the EUROMOD model which includes, for a selection of EU countries, the relevant policy sheets to simulate wealth taxes on tailored input database. This will allow expanding the policy domains currently covered in EUROMOD with dimensions like wealth taxation, which recently gained much prominence, in academics as well as the public debate.

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  • Research Project

Reconciling environmental and social goals in the transition towards a low-carbon society (SUSPENS). 01/01/2015 - 31/03/2019

Abstract

Both at the Belgian and European level, the transition to a low-carbon society is considered an important policy concern. In this project, we start from the framework of sustainable development for contributing to the debate about how the transition to a low-carbon society can be achieved, while reconciling environmental and social goals. As has been documented for other countries, standard policy instruments often create trade-offs between the different goals of sustainable development. Addressing these trade-offs – as well as their translation into inequalities between socio-economic groups – requires a thorough understanding of the link between incomes, consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the household level. Therefore, in this project we explore the interdependencies and inequalities operating at the micro-level and investigate how policy can reconcile social and environmental goals in the transition towards a low-carbon society.

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  • Research Project

An empirical investigation into the feasibility and desirability of child benefit reforms in Flanders: developing and simulating different reform scenarios. 01/12/2014 - 31/12/2015

Abstract

The objective of the research project is 1) to analyse, simulate and evaluate proposals for reforming the Flemish child benefit system; and 2) to investigate the do's and don'ts of implementing an income test in child benefit systems.

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  • Research Project

(Social differences in) labour market position and labour market trajectories of (ex-)cancer patients in Belgium: a large-scale, longitudinal analysis based on administrative databases. 01/09/2014 - 31/05/2019

Abstract

This project represents a formal research agreement between UA and on the other hand VLK. UA provides VLK research results mentioned in the title of the project under the conditions as stipulated in this contract.

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  • Research Project

The execution of simulations in order to measure the impact of certain changes in the personal income tax 24/03/2014 - 31/08/2014

Abstract

This project represents a formal research agreement between UA and on the other hand FOD Financiën. UA provides FOD Financiën research results mentioned in the title of the project under the conditions as stipulated in this contract.

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  • Research Project

Tool inactivity traps. 01/11/2013 - 31/05/2014

Abstract

The aim of this project was twofold. Firstly, it aimed to develop a tool for the ex ante assessment of the financial impact in a particular situation of a transition from benefit dependency to a work situation. Secondly, the tool was used to update our understanding of inactivity traps for disabled people in Flanders.

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  • Promoter: Van Mechelen Natascha
  • Co-promoter: Bogaerts Kristel
  • Co-promoter: Verbist Gerlinde

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  • Research Project

Measuring and mobilizing wealth for a cohesive, inclusive and fair society (CRESUS). 01/10/2013 - 31/12/2019

Abstract

The project aims to make relevant contributions at broadly two (intersecting) levels. On the one hand the network aims to contribute to a better informed public debate and policy making process on current policy issues, including the fight against poverty and social inclusion, efficient and equitable taxation, sustainable pensions and health care, labour market access and employability. On the other hand the network aims to make significant scientific contributions at an international level on the joint distribution of income and wealth, especially among the poor and the elderly, the integration of assets and wealth in the measurement of poverty and social exclusion, the incorporation of as sets and wealth in the design of social policy and the optimal taxation of wealth.

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  • Research Project

Microsimulation modelling tool for the analysis of housing tax reforms in the EU. 08/07/2013 - 07/07/2014

Abstract

The main objective of the project is to provide The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) with a modelling tooI, research results and analysis on the potential effects of housing taxation in the EU using microlevel (i.e. household) data. In particular, this tooI will be used to analyse the potential impact of housing tax reforms on household disposable income and income inequalities in selected EU countries. The tooI will also be used to analyse the effect of housing taks reforms when combined with other reforms affecting household disposable income.

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  • Research Project

Joint patterns of income and wealth inequality, causes and consequences. 26/04/2013 - 30/06/2014

Abstract

This project represents a formal research agreement between UA and on the other hand NBB . UA provides NBB research results mentioned in the title of the project under the conditions as stipulated in this contract.

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  • Research Project

Labour market outcomes of second-generation immigrants in Belgium. 01/10/2012 - 31/12/2014

Abstract

In this research project we want to analyse the labour market performance of second-generation migrants using a combination of survey and administrative data. We also want to identify the determinants of these outcomes in Belgium, which will also provide helpful insights for policy makers in this domain.

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  • Research Project

EUROMODupdate2 - Microsimulation tool. 16/03/2012 - 22/11/2018

Abstract

This project concerns the updating of the Belgian country component for EUROMOD. It involves the following tasks: 1) Updating the input database based on the EU-SILC 2) Building policy systems into EUROMOD 3) Validation and incorporation into EUROMOD 4) Country report

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  • Research Project

Employment and poverty in a changing society (EMPOV). 15/02/2012 - 30/09/2016

Abstract

This project represents a formal research agreement between UA and on the other hand the Federal Public Service. UA provides the Federal Public Service research results mentioned in the title of the project under the conditions as stipulated in this contract.

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  • Research Project

Growing Inequalities Impacts (GINI). 01/02/2010 - 31/07/2013

Abstract

Strategic objective: A major improvement in the understanding of changing inequalities and their impacts in the various countries of the European Union in comparison to other developed countries, including a longer-term perspective and with due attention paid to the impact on society as a whole

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  • Research Project

Labour market position and mobility of migrants, and its impact on the welfare state. 01/01/2010 - 31/12/2013

Abstract

The research question has two main parts: 1) What are the determinants of the gap between immigrants and natives in terms of their labour market position and mobility chances? 2) To what extent can immigration contribute to the financial sustainability of social security in general and for Belgium in particular, given the labour market position and trajectories of immigrants?

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  • Research Project

FLEMOSI: A tool for ex ante evaluation of socio-economic policies in Flanders. 01/01/2010 - 31/12/2013

Abstract

In the FLEMOSI ("FLEmish MOdels of SImulation") five international partners collaborate to build advanced microsimulation models. We start from the European model EUROMOD and extend this with specific Flemish competences. These models are used to analyse the effects of policy changes before they are put into practice.

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  • Research Project

Pre-industrial social structure & change. Inequality, polarisation and standard of living in the southern Netherlands (ca. 1650-1850). 01/10/2009 - 30/09/2011

Abstract

This is a fundamental research project financed by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO). The project was subsidized after selection by the FWO-expert panel.

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  • Research Project

EUROMOD - Microsimulation tool for modelling the impact of policy measures. 01/02/2009 - 29/02/2012

Abstract

The key objective of the project is to improve and extend EUROMOD's usefulness as a tool for policy monitoring. This will involve - updating EUROMOD to cover recent policy systems; - upgrading EUROMOD to operate using EU-SILC data as the input database; and - developing methods and precesses that facilitate the efficient updating of EUROMOD in the future.

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  • Research Project

Working poor in Flanders: a forgotten group? 01/07/2008 - 15/05/2009

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  • Research Project

Socio-economic inequality revisited. A long-term and comparative analysis: Flanders and Brabant, 15th-18th centuries. 01/10/2007 - 30/09/2009

Abstract

"The stratification of society, and its relation to patterns of economic growth, sociability and culture, is one of the most important objects of study in disciplines as sociology, economics and history. Yet to this date we still have surprisingly little empirical evidence on the evolution of social inequalities during the pre-industrial period. This research project aims to gain insight in what economic inequalities looked like during the early-modern period in the Southern Netherlands, and how it interacted with social, cultural and political inequalities and transformations that took shape within this timeframe. The results should offer a historical viewpoint and contextualization for the sociological and economic literature on present-day inequalities, as well as a social framework to contextualize some of the major cultural, social and economic transformation that took place from the 15th to the 18th centuries."

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  • Research Project

Microsimulation model Social Security MIMOSIS & Euromod: MIMOD. 01/09/2007 - 31/08/2008

Abstract

In the framework of two AGORA-projects (AG/01/086 "Microsimulation model Social Security" and AG/01/116 "Valorisation of the microsimulation of Social Protection") an arithmetic model (MIMOSIS) has been developed which allows to calculate distribution and budgetary effects of reforms in social security on the basis of administrative data. MIMOSIS has been integrated in the working of the FOD Social Security and is used for policy support and preprations. In this project we examine the extent to which MIMOSIS can be used for international comparative simulations. The 'European Tax/benefit Model' (EUROMOD) serves as a point of reference.

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  • Research Project

Economic and social profile of people who stay illegitimate, before and after the regularization operation established by the law of 22 December 1999. 01/03/2007 - 30/11/2007

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  • Research Project

Estimates about the distribution of household income and poverty in Belgium for the year 1995. 17/07/2006 - 07/03/2007

Abstract

The OECD publishes on a regular basis international comparisons of poverty and income distribution in the OECD countries. We computed the necessary figures for Belgium on the basis of ECHP (1995 and 2000) and EU-SILC (2005).

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  • Research Project

Open borders for a sustainable welfare state? An investigation into the interaction effects between migration and the welfare state. 01/07/2006 - 31/12/2010

Abstract

The central research question is: to what extent do migrants contribute to the financial sustainability of the social security system and to the economic capacity of the welfare state in general, with a focus on Belgium? To what extent can migration offer a solution to the economic and fiscal challenges produced by an ageing society? We tackle this issue using intergenerational calculations, by drawing up a socio-economic profile of migrants and by estimating their welfare dependency and contribution to the social security system.

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  • Research Project

Impact of government services on income distribution. 15/05/2006 - 25/08/2006

Abstract

This project consists of the finalisation of a report on the impact of government services on income distribution, building on an existing draft and in co-ordination with other OECD staff. This will require implementing alternative methods for attributing the costs of these services to individuals with different characteristics, on micro-records from the European Community Household Panel and possibly on other sources for non-European countries.

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  • Research Project

AIM-AP - Accurate Income Measurement for the Assessment of Public Policies. 01/02/2006 - 31/01/2009

Abstract

This programme of activity will improve the comparability, scope and applicability of tools, methods and data for the measurement of income and the analysis of the effects of policies on inequality, poverty and social inclusion. It includes three linked projects on: (a) The distributional effects of non-cash incomes and the implementation of a more comprehensive income definition, (b) The implications of (and methods to account for) errors in targeting social benefits, tax evasion and measurement error in income data, (c) Incorporation of the effects of indirect taxes, along with direct taxes and social benefits, in redistribution analysis. All three projects are designed to improve the degree of comparability of measurement and analysis across countries. Each project will develop methodologies within a cross-national perspective and demonstrate their applicability to a wide range of research questions in diverse scientific fields. The resulting data and method enhancements will be made generally accessible and re-useable by implementing them within EUROMOD the EU tax-benefit model, an existing research infrastructure used for policy analysis and evaluation.

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  • Research Project

Social and economic inequalities in the Southern Low Countries, 15th-18th centuries. Towards an interdisciplinary analysis of measurement and (re-) assessment of social inequalities in pre-industrial societies. 01/10/2005 - 30/09/2009

Abstract

Social Inequality research of the Southern Low Countries, 15th-18th centuries is marked by the use of a deficient methodology and the absence of both long term and comparative research approaches. The major goal of this research project lies a) in the accommodation and application of social inequality measurements in historical research, b) a reassessment of the existing insights related to preindustrial social inequality.

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  • Research Project

Scientific support for calculating the redistributive effects of an alternative way of funding social security. 15/09/2005 - 15/09/2006

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  • Research Project

Economic change, quality of life and social cohesion. (EQUALSOC) 01/09/2005 - 31/12/2010

Abstract

Equalsoc is a network of excellence funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme. The network consists of 13 European research centres which the Commission deems to have attained exceptional level of academic expertise in the field of social inequality and cohesion. The network intends to encourage comparative research in such areas as employment and the labour market, income distribution and mobility, education and social mobility, the family and social networks, cultural differentiation and social capital.

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  • Research Project

Valorisation of the Microsimulation Model Social Security. 01/09/2005 - 31/08/2007

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  • Research Project

The imputation of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC-inquiry)-executive phase. 01/02/2005 - 30/11/2005

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  • Research Project

Social federalism in Belgium and in Europe. 01/01/2005 - 31/12/2007

Abstract

This research project deals with the question of what is the most optimal level at which to organise social redistribution through social security and taxation, in Belgium, in other federal States and in Europe. This issue will be approached empirically, by studying the functioning, the determinants and the outcomes (in terms of social adequacy) of social redistribution between territorial entities. From a distributional perspective, we shall try to determine the optimum level at which to organise income redistribution and explore possibilities for allowing separate redistributive entities to work together.

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  • Research Project

Assistance for the imputation of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC-inquiry)-executive phase. 01/01/2004 - 31/05/2004

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  • Research Project

Assistance for the imputation of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC-inquiry)-preparatory phase. 01/09/2003 - 31/12/2003

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  • Research Project

The Living Conditions of Lone Parents in Belgium. 01/11/2002 - 30/04/2003

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    • Research Project