Research Ruud Wouters

Abstract

How does protest affect public opinion in the hybrid media system? The past decade, social media have become a key instrument in protest movements' toolbox. To date, however, little work has thoroughly scrutinized how social media have altered movements' ability to generate attention and sway public opinion. This project asks: How do movements navigate social media to win the public's interest? To what extent and when do protests resonate on social media? And, how do protests affect individuals' perceptions via online messaging? To answer these questions, I follow a three-step approach. First, I explore movements' digital strategy to gain public support. I do so by means of in-depth interviews with movement communication strategists. Second, I compare social and mass media covering protests and examine to what extent and under which conditions protests succeed to resonate in the hybrid media system. I do so by means of a content analysis covering a large number of Belgian protests across a multitude of issues over a longer period of time (2017-2022). Third, I use vignette experiments to understand how both 'physical' and 'digital' features of protest affect individuals' beliefs, attitudes and behavior. The project breaks new ground in three particular ways. It (1) redefines the public opinion concept by studying audience analytics, (2) systematically compares mass and social media resonance, and (3) examines how movements play the "public opinion game" online.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Walgrave Stefaan
• Co-promoter: Wouters Ruud
• Fellow: Staes Luna

Research team(s)

• Media, Movements and Politics (M2P)

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

Expanding the scope of conflict—that is, triggering reactions of significant others in the public sphere—is a key outcome of protest. This project scrutinizes how (early) reactions drive the extent to which other actors are compelled to react to protest. As such, it investigates the contagious nature of scope expansion. Scope expansion is argued to be, in part, a function of itself: early reactions to protest compel other actors to engage, pushing the debate forward. The starting point of the analysis is that early reactions overcome a sort of reaction "threshold", affecting other actor's propensity to react. Reactions breed other reactions—similar to success-breeds-success dynamics—and hence have a cascading effect. To test this process, reaction "chains" will be dissected. Features of early reactions or early reaction patterns will be modelled to see whether they can predict later reactions or reaction patterns. For instance, consensus in early reactions is expected to seriously constrain the scope of conflict. If all actors agree, then it is unlikely that the issue warrants further attention and interest quickly disappears. Alternatively, early decisionmaker reactions might fuel debate, as other actors sense that there is an opening in the political system they can exploit. And, the engagement of a particular party actor might draw an ideologically close party in the debate, as both actors struggle for issue-ownership and seek to appeal to a similar constituency. Theoretically, party competition, agenda-setting, news value and protest impact theories are combined to put forward hypotheses about the contagious nature of scope expansion. Empirically, mass and social media content analysis are used to construct protest event and scope of conflict data in Belgium, spanning a 20 year period (2000-2020). Methodologically, time series analyses will be used to dissect reaction chains.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Wouters Ruud

Research team(s)

• Media, Movements and Politics (M2P)

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

When is protest persuasive? Or, more precisely, how do protest actions succeed in eliciting supportive reactions of citizens and political elites? Protest has become a mainstream instrument in Western democracies for citizens to signal problems and communicate preferences. Evidence on how protest proves influential is scarce, however. This project seeks to contribute to the recent surge in attention to protest impact in four particular ways. First, it places the role of mass media in protest politics center stage. It formulates and substantiates a theory on protest impact with media attention as crucial mediating variable. It is through media coverage that protest is perceived and it is to media cues that observers of protest react. Second, it lays bare the mechanisms that drive protest power. It tests how internal characteristics of protest –displays of worthiness, unity, numbers and commitment– influence the salience people attach to the protest issue, the position they take on that issue and the action they are willing to take. Third, it compares two protest publics -elites and citizens- and as such explores two pathways of protest impact. Finally, this project also innovates methodologically. It introduces experiments in the field of protest impact research. Experiments guarantee researcher control, can ascertain causality and hence are ideally suited to test and tease out the mechanisms that drive the mediated persuasive power of protest.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Walgrave Stefaan
• Fellow: Wouters Ruud

Research team(s)

• Media, Movements and Politics (M2P)

Project type(s)

• Research Project