Research team
Expertise
Over the past decades, welfare states coped with tremendous and ongoing challenges. Technological advances and globalization profoundly changed western economies and labour markets. Atypical labour contracts abounded. These include part time work and temporary contracts, but also work types where it has become unclear whether someone is self-employed or an employee. This evolution led to highly complex careers at the bottom of the labour market, where vulnerable employees combine different types of contracts and alternate employment and unemployment spells. Meanwhile, socio-demographic shifts and migration have led to less stable families and less homogenous societies. The society blueprint welfare states were built on, of stable families with a male breadwinner in full-time employment, is outdated. Against this background, I look into the potential of targeted benefits as effective social policy measures, taking account of different design options, their implementation and their effectiveness in terms of poverty reduction. Academically, this research scope adds to long-standing debates on the optimal design and effectiveness of social policies. This debate urgently needs tools to assess theoretical concepts and social policy design in terms of changeable real-life situations. Academic research usually adopts an annual perspective when assessing the effectiveness of social policy measures, averaging out fluctuations in income that may be felt hard in a context of intermittent employment and benefit spells. A well-considered assessment of how this perspective influences our findings and thinking on ideal social policy measures is warranted. It is for instance well-accepted that income-targeted benefits will decrease the financial gain when moving from benefits to employment, as these benefits are withdrawn when income from work becomes available. However, in a context of highly flexible careers at the bottom of the labour market, taking up employment will not solely depend on the expected financial gain, but also on expectations regarding the duration of the employment and the ease with which someone previously gained access to benefits. This experienced ease of access ultimately depends on the implementation of social policies. Building on information on careers at the bottom of the labour market obtained from administrative records, combined with a time-sensitive assessment of policies, I aim to develop tools to assess social policy effectiveness in light of such real-world experiences. For one, I look into the effectiveness of residual means-tested minimum income protection, that automatically became more relevant as the welfare state struggled to adapt to the broad trends described above. Second, I assess the responsiveness of targeted social policies in a context of unstable labour market careers. Third, I assess the implementation of targeted social policies, looking into the incentives policy makers at different implementation levels face. Are these incentives organised in such a way to guarantee smooth access to benefits on all policy levels?
Sustainable Wellbeing through Investment in Social Services (SWINS).
Abstract
SWINS will develop and test a policy-oriented toolbox for the ex-ante assessment of the economic and social returns of investments in social services over the life course. Focusing on the complementarity of services aimed at developing human capabilities throughout the lifespan, it will explore the impacts of alternative social policy scenarios entailing different social services configurations (from maternal care and ECEC, to education and ALMP, up to long-term care). SWINS will conceptualize the returns to social services in terms of income, employment, and growth, as well as bridge knowledge gaps about how these investments influence macroeconomic stability and foster the EU sustainability transition performances. By implementing a right-based social investment approach, SWINS aims to support the rethinking of social services as drivers of the EU's shift towards sustainable wellbeing, going beyond their role as mere safeguards against the transition's side effects. SWINS methodology will be based on three main steps: 1) the identification of macro-regularities, that is the relation between investment in social services and aggregate social-economic performances, 2) analysis of the micro-foundations, that is the analysis of the micro-level mechanisms that explains the macro-regularities, 3) macro and long term projection of the results. SWINS will rely on a variety of methodologies, i.e. microsimulation analysis using the EUROMOD platform and its expansions, synthetic panels, causal analysis of comparative microdata, machine learning techniques and macroeconomic agentbased models. Leveraging the expertise of a multi-disciplinary (law, economics, sociology, political science) consortium, SWINS will explicitly pursue impact by proposing concrete strategies to integrate research findings and tools into the institutional, legal and policy frameworks.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Verbist Gerlinde
- Co-promoter: Cantillon Bea
- Co-promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Co-promoter: Marx Ive
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
When flexicurity drops the ball: assessing the role of the European welfare states in mitigating the income effects of volatile employment.
Abstract
Since the 2000s, flexicurity has found traction as a policy strategy thanks to its win-win promise of meeting both companies' demand for flexibility, and workers' demand for security, through a combination of flexible labour markets and generous unemployment benefits. Recently, its basic tenets were recuperated in the European Pillar of Social Rights. Research has so far not succeeded in demonstrating the validity of flexicurity's win-win claims. We argue that this is due to its inherent conceptual vagueness, that translates itself in obscurity regarding flexicurity's expected working at the micro-level, and in overly general indicators used in empirical research. In particular, the concept's dynamic nature, i.e. the smoothing of transitions during one's work life to new employment or to welfare state coverage, is largely ignored in common operationalizations. This research project revisits flexicurity's prime claims, that we understand to be replacing job security by employment security, and guaranteeing income security, using individual and dynamic measures inspired by research on income volatility. We focus on the role of different welfare state institutions in guaranteeing income security. Our focus on European welfare states, with their vastly varying institutions, will aid in discerning to what extent flexicurity policies are effectively relevant for those in unstable careers, and which national income support policies limit income shocks.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Developing a nowcasting method for DG Analysis and Monitoring of FPS Social Security
Abstract
The aim of the present study 'Nowcasting BELMOD' is to work out a nowcasting method for the BELMOD dataset. To deal with the problem of missing recent data, nowcasting methods are increasingly being used to analyse the recent past, present or near future. We will use a parametric method. In addition we will work out and test a nowcasting approach for calculating an up-to-date poverty line.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Verbist Gerlinde
- Co-promoter: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Fixing the holes in Europe's social safety nets: understanding the nature and causes of minimum income inadequacy in the EU.
Abstract
Despite considerable efforts to reduce social exclusion and economic hardship, poverty remains a persistent problem in Europe, representing a major policy conundrum for EU welfare states. Minimum Income Schemes (MIS) are in force in all EU Member States (MS) to provide a last safety net. Yet, their effectiveness in covering and adequately supporting the poor remains by and large disappointing, be it with considerable variation across countries. While social research has addressed the performance of MIS in the EU, major questions remain. Why are MIS incapable at reducing poverty? How does their accessibility differ across EU? Who is left uncovered? In this project, I will investigate the drivers of the insufficient and yet heterogeneous capacity of MIS in protecting the most vulnerable in Europe. Concretely, I will assess the coverage, adequacy, and take-up of MIS and explain how and why they differ across EU. The main objectives are: 1) to understand the role played by MIS in providing social safety nets inside the welfare set-up; 2) to innovate the methods used to identify MIS recipients; and 3) to discern who is left uncovered, and the reasons why. Addressing shortcomings in previous research, the project will enhance our comprehension of the mechanisms behind the MIS disappointing performances and it will provide policy-oriented insights to optimize the targeting of social safety nets and to improve the effectiveness of social protection.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marx Ive
- Co-promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Fellow: Nardo Alessandro
Research team(s)
Project website
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Changing work, changing incomes: designing a responsive social protection system for all (CHANGE).
Abstract
Atypical employment, including parttime or fixed-term employment, is on the rise, while also hybrid forms of work have started to emerge, with individuals combining various forms of employment and self-employed activities. Labour law has been "adapted" to accommodate the demand for flexible work by new non-standard work forms. Meanwhile, social insurance is still to a large extent organised around a clear distinction between wage employment and self-employment and based on the figure of the stable full-time worker. This leads to important gaps in social insurance protections. As such, a reorganisation of contemporary social protection systems around new markers of vulnerability requires an integrated and interdisciplinary re-assessment of the way we organize solidarity, taking explicit account of legal possibilities, administrative feasibility and expected gains in terms of social outcomes. This project undertakes to do an in-depth investigation into these issues, with a clear focus on the situation of the broad group of non-standard workers. Our ultimate objective is to offer viable pathways towards more adequate social protection for all. We assess vulnerability among the active population at large, yet with a specific and explicit focus on the broad group of non-standard workers: self-employed; atypical employees such as parttime, fixed term or agency workers; those combining different jobs, or employment with a self-employed activity; and those in new work forms. We ask how the increasing relevance in legal non-standard work forms can and should be accommodated by a recalibration of social protection. We add further understanding of the association between background characteristics known to be related with inadequate social protection coverage (including ethnicity, education, family type, gender, and disability). This project combines empirical social policy and poverty analyses with legal analyses in an interdisciplinary perspective: we ask what the legal implications are of using different markers of vulnerability, so as to improve social protection. Methodologically, CHANGE aims to push forward recent innovations in the measurement of living standards, financial resilience and welfare state responsiveness. To this end, we will exploit existing surveys and register data sources in quantitative analyses. In addition, we will gather new data on a broad and diverse group of non-standard workers, including different types of self-employed workers and atypical employees. This will enable us to understand the various (and often common) challenges they are confronted with, such as substandard coverage by social protection and fluctuating incomes. The impact of existing policies on vulnerable target groups, as well as legally viable policy changes will be assessed through (hypothetical household or micro) simulations. IResearcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Data Infrastructure and Indicators for Fast Monitoring of Social and Labour Market Developments in Belgium (BE-FAST).
Abstract
Although the rapid disclosure of timely government data on labour market positions and benefit receipt was extremely helpful during the COVID 19 pandemic, the existing data infrastructure is not properly configured to monitor the impact of sudden shocks for several reasons: (1) data and indicators that are timely enough to swiftly monitor impact are supplied by separate government agencies and social security organisations at the aggregate level, which makes these data unsuitable to track transitions between social protection systems, while linked data at the individual level is only available with too long a delay to be useful for rapid monitoring. (2) While the household situation (e.g. having a working partner or not, or having children) is of key importance to gauge the living conditions of individuals, timely data concerns individuals rather than households. (3) Timely data includes information on those persons who are actually eligible to benefits or policy measures under current legislation, excluding those not entitled to social protection. This means that the degree of social protection and the impact of the pandemic on the income of those who fell through the cracks of the safety net remained elusive. The BE-FAST project builds the necessary data infrastructure to rapidly monitor social and labour market developments to guide future policy responses.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Socioeconomic Inequality and Policy.
Abstract
The relation of targeting to social outcomes is a hot topic in social policy literature. This debate focuses on the relation between targeting and the redistribution achieved by the welfare state. Some argue that welfare provisions should disproportionally benefit lower incomes, efficiently achieving redistribution at a relatively low cost (Goodin & Le Grand, 1987), whereas other scholars have argued for the so-called "paradox of redistribution" (Korpi and Palme, 1998). Welfare states that target less, would achieve better redistributive outcomes, as more universal welfare states garner more support from middle class voters for larger social budgets. In recent years, doubts have risen on whether this paradox still holds (Brady & Bostic, 2015; Marx et al., 2016), re-opening the debate on optimal targeting design and effectiveness. A neglected issue so-far relates to the responsiveness of targeted policies in a context of flexible labour market careers. Over the past decades, atypical labour contracts have become more prevalent (Schoukens, 2020). Qualitative research has shown that this evolution led to highly complex careers at the bottom of the labour market, where vulnerable employees combine different types of contracts and alternate employment and unemployment spells (Hills, 2014; Trlifajová & Hurrle, 2019). In such a context, targeted social policies will have highly varying impacts on experienced hardship depending on the speed with which they react to changed circumstances. The responsiveness and accessibility of targeted policies is not only related to their institutional design, but also to their implementation. To the extent that policy makers aim for tailor-made targeted support, the implementation of targeted social policies may be devolved over different policy levels, often the national and the local level (Kazepov, 2010; De Wilde and Marchal, 2019). In such a context, policy makers at different levels may experience incentives that hamper the poverty reducing effectiveness of targeted social policies (Bonoli and Trein, 2016). In order to asses the potential of targeted benefits as effective social policy measures in a profoundly changed labour market context, it is necessary to take account of the interplay of different design options and their implementation, in terms of responsiveness and poverty-fighting effectiveness. Taken together, this research into the design, implementation and effectiveness of targeted policies, will ultimately feed into an exciting new research agenda on how welfare states as a whole can be adapted to a changed world.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Fellow: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
The nexus between institutional design, implementation and outcomes of targeted social policies in a context of flexible work- and income patterns.
Abstract
This research project assesses the effectiveness of targeted social policy in a context of flexible and atypical work and income patterns. It takes account of the responsiveness of targeted social policies, and of the implementation challenges different types of targeted social policies represent. Specifically, this project will focus on three research questions: i) What impact does flexible and atypical employment have on income stability? ii) What are the implications of atypical employment for the design and organization of effective targeted social protection policies? iii) How do different forms of targeting relate to social outcomes?Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Fellow: Binte Mohammad Wizan Nur Maisarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Data to feature in a further collaboration on an Asian-Europe social assistance comparison piece.
Abstract
We generate hypothetical household simulations that allow to compare the generosity of social assistance provisions and minimum income protection packages between Eastern-Asian and Western-European welfare states around the year 2020.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
SocialStudy on the impact of employment in the social economy on poverty and social exclusion
Abstract
Research into the poverty-reducing effect of the social economy in Flanders by means of a quantitative and qualitative method, gauging the consequences of social employment for the incomes and quality of life of those concerned.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Cantillon Bea
- Co-promoter: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
COVIVAT - study into the impact of COVID 19 lockdown and social policy measures on the household income distribution
Abstract
COVIVAT assesses the consequences of the COVID-19 social distancing measures on the incomes of Belgian individuals and households. The aim is to generate insights that can support policy makers in limiting the social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, and that may feed into post-Corona social policy.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Co-promoter: Cantillon Bea
- Co-promoter: Decancq Koen
- Co-promoter: Marx Ive
- Co-promoter: Verbist Gerlinde
Research team(s)
Project website
Project type(s)
- Research Project
A feasibility study into the development and use of an additional poverty indicator for Flanders
Abstract
We build further on the insights and recommendations of the VISA report, and investigate the feasibility of a "nominal poverty indicator". We develop a proposal on the possible construction of such an indicator, taking account of the quality criteria for valid and robust indicators, data availability and implementation potential.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Co-promoter: Cantillon Bea
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Analysis of the (evolution of the) social situation with regard to the social targets and priorities of the national reform programme and the national social report
Abstract
This project will add to the annual reports on the evolution of the social situation and social protection in Belgium, by extending the instruments used, using policy indicators for a more timely assessment, also with regard to the COVID crisis, placing the reports and their findings in the broader literature, and listing key challenges.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Cantillon Bea
- Co-promoter: Decancq Koen
- Co-promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Co-promoter: Marx Ive
- Co-promoter: Verbist Gerlinde
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Rights-based versus benevolent solidarity in European welfare states: the case of food banks and minimum income protection.
Abstract
Unfortunately, food bank use is on the rise in many European member states. At the same time, poverty among the working age population is increasing in many countries while evidence points to an almost universal inadequacy of social protection systems. Interestingly, Europe provides food assistance via the Fund for European Aid to the Most Deprived (FEAD), making it a unique instrument of transnational interpersonal income redistribution. Against this background, questions can be raised about the balance between rights-based social protection and benevolent social action and the role of Europe herein. Concretely, this proposal will focus on food aid, FEAD and minimum income protection, in an attempt to gain better understanding in the relationship between the functioning of welfare states to provide adequate social safety nets on the one hand and benevolent social action in Europe on the other. First, taking a cross-European comparative approach, food bank data regarding the budgets, number of recipients, etc. will be analyzed and linked to indicators of welfare state efforts and social performances. Furthermore, we will study the profiles of food aid beneficiaries to explore their relationship with minimum income protection schemes. Lastly, estimating the financial value of food packages will allow us to examine to what extent food aid compensates for inadequate minimum incomes.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Cantillon Bea
- Co-promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Fellow: Hermans Karen
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
A set of indicators to measure contextual factors and policy impact with regard to poverty in Flanders (Flemish indicator set poverty)
Abstract
VISA aims to develop a set of valid and robust policy input and outcome indicators to measure the impact of policy on poverty and social exclusion in Flanders. We will make recommendations regarding the data and policy models needed to further maintain and develop the VISA indicators in the future.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Cantillon Bea
- Co-promoter: Marchal Sarah
- Co-promoter: Marx Ive
- Co-promoter: Storms Berenice M L
- Co-promoter: Verbist Gerlinde
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
The effectiveness of social policy targeted at households with disabled children in Flanders: does the existing set of social policies succeed in reducing the poverty risk of disabled children?
Abstract
Families with disabled children combine both direct and indirect costs that likely have a negative impact on their poverty risk. First, they face higher direct costs due to the child's medical and care needs. Second, they face higher indirect costs as they need to provide more care which jeopardises the parents' engagement in the labour market. On top of that, families with disabled children often have a lower socioeconomic status than families without disabled children, increasing their poverty risk independent of having a disabled child. Many Western welfare states have implemented a set of benefits and services for families with disabled children to mitigate these direct and indirect costs. However, we lack insight in the actual effectiveness of these social policies in reaching this objective. Therefore, this research project aims to evaluate to what extent the existing set of social policies for families with disabled children in Flanders succeeds in reducing their poverty risk by increasing family income directly or indirectly. Specifically, the project will work on three related research strands. First, we will explore the non-take-up of social support for disabled children as this phenomenon can substantially impede the actual effectiveness of social policies. Second, we will look into the direct poverty reducing effect of the existing cash allowances for families with disabled children, in particular the supplemental child benefit. Finally, the indirect impact will be investigated via the causal effect of the presence of disabled children on parental employment. The budget requested within this BOF-KP project will be used to finance a data request with the Belgian Crossroads Bank for Social Security for the extension of an existing administrative dataset. Obtaining longitudinal employment information, information from the Ministry of Education and from the tax administration, will allow us to shed light on the three research strands. We will apply quantitative methods on this unique administrative dataset.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
When do exogenous shocks trigger institutional change: minimum income protection in times of crisis.
Abstract
This project seeks to expand our knowledge on these first round crisis measures, and to assess their possible impact on subsequent policy measures and welfare state change. The project takes advantage of the research opportunity offered by the 2008 crisis.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marx Ive
- Fellow: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
When do exogenous shocks trigger institutional change: minimum income protection in times of crisis.
Abstract
This project seeks to expand our knowledge on these first round crisis measures, and to assess their possible impact on subsequent policy measures and welfare state change. The project takes advantage of the research opportunity offered by the 2008 crisis.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marx Ive
- Fellow: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project
Is there a trade-off between providing adequate income protection and promoting selfsufficiency in social assistance schemes? On the optimal mix of empowerment, conditonality and sanctioning.
Abstract
This doctoral research aims to gain insight in the optimal policy mix of conditional measures and enabling policies (directed towards social assistance recipients) in order to promote the transition of social assistance to employment, while ensuring a decent level of protection. By doing so, it will contribute to answering the question of why some countries succeed in combining high minimum income protection levels with high levels of outflow from social assistance dependency and why Belgium is not among them. In other words, the central aim is to find out the role of conditionality in bringing social assistance recipients to work and enabling the social assistance scheme to provide adequate benefits.Researcher(s)
- Promoter: Marx Ive
- Fellow: Marchal Sarah
Research team(s)
Project type(s)
- Research Project