Doctorandi and postdoctoral researchers

Jonas Vandenbruaene
Title: Efficient Prediction Markets
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Jan Annaert and Prof. dr. Marc De Ceuster
Date: 30 June 2022

Abstract

A core question in financial economics is whether markets are informationally efficient i.e., whether asset prices accurately reflect all available information. Although the empirical literature on market efficiency is vast, the subject is still heavily debated among academics and practitioners. A fundamental issue with informational efficiency is that it is virtually untestable in traditional financial markets. For example, in an ideal world, researchers would compare stock prices on stock markets with their true values to check whether they are aligned or not. However, as true values of stocks are never available, this is not possible. This untestability of market efficiency is referred to as the joint hypothesis problem. 

In this dissertation, we try to make an original, unconventional contribution to the market efficiency debate by studying prediction markets. Prediction markets are platforms where people can bet on the outcome of future events, like a presidential election or a football game. Prediction markets have many characteristics that make them interesting research labs. Their main advantage is that the outcomes of the events are exogenously revealed, the market prices collide with reality. This allows researchers to systematically compare market prices with terminal values to detect mispricing, which is not possible on stock markets and circumvents the joint hypothesis problem. 

This dissertation contains three empirical chapters. In the first, we review 40 years of literature on mechanical trading strategies in sports prediction markets. Many individual studies claim to have found profitable trading strategies which implies inefficient market pricing. However, when we consider the entire literature, the evidence is consistent with an efficient market where profit opportunities are chance results. Furthermore, we argue for more meta-scientific reflexes and put forward a hurdle rate of |z|>3 to benchmark the statistical significance of empirical results. 

The second empirical chapter studies the evolution of the UK fixed odds betting market between 2000 and 2018. This period is of particular interest as it coincides with the rise of online gambling. We find that over this period, transaction costs decreased very significantly, both statistically and economically. Furthermore, we document a decrease in the favorite-longshot bias, a persistent anomaly in prediction market research. 

The third empirical chapter tests whether time series momentum, a well-known irregularity in traditional financial markets, is also present in prediction market data. We find that a time series momentum effect is indeed present and by leveraging the prediction market characteristics, we show it is consistent with behavioral underreaction and not a rational premium for variance or skewness.

​Thi Luong
Title: The design and use of management control systems in Vietnam: an analysis of antecedents and consequences
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Ann Jorissen and Prof. dr. Ine Paeleman
Date: 29 October 2021

Sanne Janssen
Title: Professional Skepticism Profiles, Effects on Audit Processes and Outcomes
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Kris Hardies and Prof. dr. Ann Vanstraelen
Date: 25 September 2020

​Fynn Gerken
Title : Firm Disclosure Under Uncertainty
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Kris Hardies and Prof. dr. Wannes Heirman
Date: 13 November 2020

Piyada Daowadueng
Title: Antecedents and Consequences of Complex Costing Systems: Empirical Analyses
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Ann Jorissen
Date: 8 July 2019

Leentje Moortgat
Title: Dividend policy: a long term investigation
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Marc Deloof and Prof. dr. Jan Annaert
Date: 20 May 2019

Gertjan Verdickt
Title: Speculative asset prices
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Marc Deloof
Date: 26 June 2019

Dinh Thi Lê Trinh
Title: Interpersonal Trust in Vietnamese Companies: a study of organizational antecedents and effects.
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Ann Jorissen and Prof. dr. Koen Vandenbempt
Date: 13 December 2019

Daniel Mucci
Title:  Governance systems and stewardship in family firms: an analysis of antecedents and consequences.
Supervisor joint PhD: Prof. dr. Ann Jorissen (University of Antwerp) Prof. dr. Fabio Frezatti (University of Sao Paolo)
Date:

Veronique Vermoesen
Title: Corporate governance and corporate finance during crisis periods
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Marc Deloof
Date: 4 March 2016

Robin Deman
Title: Corporate governance in Belgian private family firms and SMEs: the impact on entrepreneurial orientation and firm performance
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Ann Jorissen and Prof. dr. Eddy Laveren
Date: 18 May 2016

Oveis Madadian
Title: Intra-industry benchmarking of discretionary corporate disclosure
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Walter Aerts
Date: 5 July 2016

Els Vanhoof
Title: Evolvable accounting information systems: applying design science methodology and normalized systems theory to tackle combinatorial effects of multiple GAAP
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Walter Aerts and Prof. dr. Jan Verelst
Date: 21 September 2016

Kurt Verstegen
Title: On the interaction between interest rate risk and credit risk
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Jan Annaert and Prof. dr. Marc De Ceuster
Date: 29 September 2015

Ngo My Tran
Title: Essays on Privatization and Corporate Governance in Vietnam
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Walter Nonneman and Prof. dr. Ann Jorissen
Date: 5 December 2014

Beibei Yan
Title: Rhetorical Impression Management in the Letter to Shareholders: Determinants and Consequences
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Walter Aerts
Date: 18 September 2014

Dalina Amonhaemanon
Title: Asset Allocation and Inflation Hedging Strategies: Thai Applications
Supervisor: Prof. dr. Jan Annaert
Date: 3 July 2014

Fan Wu
Title: The Impact of Country and Industry Diversification on Equity Portfolios
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Anouk Claes and Prof. dr. Marc De Ceuster
Date: 6 June 2014
 

Hau Le Long
Title: The role of financial markets for the Vietnamese economy
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Marc De Ceuster and Prof. dr. Jef Plasmans
Date: 30 September 2013

Machteld Van den Bogaerd
Title: The role of a firm's media reputation with regard to its credit policy
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Walter Aerts
Date: 16 May 2012

Lord Mensah
Title: Cross-Sectional Predictability of Stock Returns: Pre-World War I Evidence
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Jan Annaert
Date: 5 October 2011

Yan Du
Title: Formal Control Mechanisms in Multinational Enterprises: Management Control Systems and Subsidiary Board of Directors
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Ann Jorissen and Prof. dr. Marc Deloof
Date: 6 July 2011

Mihaela Livia Ghita
Title: Business Elites and Corporate Network Structures in 19th and 20th Century Belgium
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Marc Deloof and Prof. dr. Ludo Cuyvers
Date: 13 May 2011

Frederik Michiels
Title: Dependence Modeling in Economic Applications: Towards a more Efficiënt Copula Approach
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Ann De Schepper
Date: 7 December 2010

Katrien Van de Poel
Title: New Regulation and Financial Reporting Quality in Europe: Three Empirical Studies on IFRS, Corporate Governance and Public Oversight
Supervisors: Prof. dr. Ann Vanstraelen
Date: 23 February 2010